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Reading the Mortgage Market Tea Leaves

Analyst: Bill Bradway

June 25, 2010

The single largest consumer debt liability and expense are mortgages and the largest consumer loan type for banks and thrifts are residential mortgages. The government sponsored mortgage entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are responsible for over $5 trillion in residential mortgages either through direct ownership or by issuing mortgage guarantees. Overall market sentiment has been bearish for three years and signs of a housing recovery are spotty at best.

On a national level, the mortgage market has stumbled through a severe correction over the past three years. Prior research described the housing recession’s impact on specific companies and the government’s dilemma over its options to try and help the housing and mortgage market recoveries (see “Countrywide Lays an Egg,” “Delinquencies Sprout Like Weeds,” “Time to Say Goodbye to the Old American Mortgage Pie?”, “Residential Mortgage Market: Time for a ‘Do Over’”, and “Will HAMP Become a Foreclosure Nightmare?”). As noted in several of these analyses, the overall outlook for the mortgage market was a dreary one through either 2010 or 2011.

This analysis assesses the prospects for mortgage market demand and the impact on the mortgage eco-system, including originators, servicers, third party mortgage suppliers, and the mortgage tech players.

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