2009 Mid-year Snapshot and Forecast Update

Analyst: Bill Bradway

June 30, 2004

In A & O Brief 2008-24 (published December 16, 2008), a number of questions were addressed that touched on several key issues affecting all industry participants. Three questions in particular deserve an update.

• How will the shape and size of the industry change in 2009, 2010 and beyond?
• What is the competitive outlook for surviving banks? 
• How will the crisis-driven consolidation play out with FinTech vendors and affect the outlook for IT spending?

An additional area of interest for this update surrounds the developments within the FinTech community, particularly the status of new technology innovations from startups and established players. Many projections from the forecast remain intact, while others deserve a mid-year refresh. The rock and roll developments of the first half of 2009 have achieved historic significance. The domestic banking industry continues to undergo a massive transformation process that is still reshaping the future of banking in the US. Updates on key developments include:

• Banking industry consolidation
• Competitive outlook for surviving banks
• FinTech vendor consolidation and IT spending outlook
• New technology innovations
• Oh, and by the way - three more issues to watch

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