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2008 Mid-Year Analysis and Second-Half Expectations

June 30, 2008

What a dreary and abysmal 1H2008 for US banks and thrifts. The initial subprime credit meltdown has expanded to include all forms of residential mortgage lending including home equity loans and new home construction lending. Evidence is mounting that the credit crunch has crept into other consumer loans (e.g., credit cards, auto loans/leases) and commercial real estate lending. The looming oil price shock on the US economy has potential widespread consequences that may likely doom the US economy to an undisputed and painful recession. Are there any rays of sunshine for banks and thrifts? What are the potential consequences for financial technology suppliers?

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